A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
